Four years after the military coup, Myanmar remains in a state of turmoil, but the tides are shifting. The resistance movement, once seen as a scattered uprising, has transformed into an organized force that has inflicted major losses on the junta. Cities and villages remain battlegrounds, airstrikes are a daily threat, and the humanitarian crisis deepens—yet, hope persists.
As we enter 2025, the question remains: is Myanmar on the brink of collapse, or is it on the path to reclaiming its freedom?
The most significant turning point in the anti-junta fight came with Operation 1027, launched in late 2023. Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) formed strategic alliances, reclaiming key military bases and cutting off junta supply lines. By 2024, the military had lost control over vast territories, including parts of Shan, Kachin, Karen, and Rakhine states.
In recent months, resistance forces have made bold advances, putting the military under pressure in areas once thought to be strongholds. Junta battalions are surrendering in record numbers, and defections among soldiers are increasing. But this progress has come at a cost—the junta has retaliated with intensified airstrikes, targeting civilians, hospitals, and schools in a desperate bid to maintain control.
The Junta’s Growing Desperation
Despite its military losses, the junta remains defiant. With fewer soldiers willing to fight, it has ramped up forced conscription, pulling young men off the streets and sending them to the frontlines with little training. The regime has also doubled down on its scorched-earth strategy—burning entire villages, bombing resistance-held towns, and using food and aid as weapons of war.
But cracks are showing within the regime. High-profile desertions and infighting among military leadership signal internal instability. If the resistance maintains its momentum, the junta’s grip could weaken further in 2025.
A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
Myanmar’s civil war has displaced over 2.5 million people, with thousands fleeing across borders into Thailand, India, and China. Food shortages, power outages, and medical supply crises have become the new normal. The country’s economy is in freefall, with the kyat (MMK) plummeting in value, driving up the cost of essentials.
In resistance-controlled areas, communities are self-organizing to survive. Underground schools continue to educate children, volunteer medical networks treat the wounded, and border aid networks work around junta blockades. The people’s resilience is remarkable, but their suffering is immense.
The World Watches, But Does Little
Despite clear evidence of war crimes, the international response remains disappointingly weak. The United Nations issues statements, but enforcement is non-existent. ASEAN’s peace plan has failed spectacularly, as the junta ignores diplomatic efforts. Western nations have imposed selective sanctions, but key military funding sources—like fuel, aviation supplies, and arms sales from China and Russia—remain largely untouched.
However, some progress has been made. In late 2024, the U.S. and European nations ramped up sanctions targeting Myanmar’s state-owned banks and restricted fuel imports that power the junta’s air force. Meanwhile, neighboring Thailand has faced increasing pressure to stop enabling military-linked businesses. But these efforts are not enough. Without stronger international action, the junta will continue its war against its own people.
What Lies Ahead in 2025?
Myanmar’s future hangs in the balance. The resistance movement is closer than ever to weakening the junta beyond repair. If their momentum continues, 2025 could be the year that shifts the power dynamic in favor of pro-democracy forces.
However, victory is not guaranteed. The military still controls urban centers, airpower, and key economic resources. Without sustained international pressure and support for the resistance, the conflict could drag on, plunging the country further into crisis.
One thing is clear: the people of Myanmar have not given up. Their fight for democracy is no longer just a rebellion—it is a revolution. And as the world steps into 2025, Myanmar’s fate depends on whether the international community chooses to stand with its people or continue looking the other way.
The time to act is now.
References
Myanmar’s Escalating Crisis: A Year in Review and the Road Ahead | UNIP
https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/01/myanmars-escalating-crisis-year-review-and-road-ahead
Myanmar : Four Years After Coup, World Must Demand Accountability for Atrocity Crimes
The Guardian view on Myanmar, four years on: the army unleashed terror, but the people are defiant | Editorial
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